Can the strong growth of steel exports continue this year?

In the first half of this year, the national steel exports showed a strong growth situation. According to customs statistics, my country exported 53.4 million tons of steel from January to June 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24%. During the same period, the export value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 8.2%, accounting for 58.9% of my total export value; among them, the export of automatic data processing equipment and its parts increased by 10.3%, the export of automobiles increased by 22.2%, and the export value of ships increased by 91.1% year-on-year. Preliminary estimates show that China’s indirect steel exports currently far exceed its direct exports. The total steel exports in the first half of the year (direct steel exports plus indirect steel exports) should be converted into crude steel of no less than 100 million tons.Can the strong growth of China’s steel exports in the first half of the year continue in the second half of the year? Judging from multiple factors: Due to the strong resilience of steel exports this year, it is expected that the national steel exports (including indirect exports, the same below) will continue to be huge in scale in the second half of the year, while maintaining a year-on-year growth trend, but the growth rate will fall back.